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About the Workshop

Forecasting has a rich tradition in ML, spanning key areas such as time-series analysis, online learning, data-driven decisions and quantitative finance. Recent advances in foundation models, however, raise a qualitatively new question: can general-purpose AI systems reliably anticipate future events across diverse real-world domains? Indeed, forecasting is often viewed as a hallmark of sophisticated intelligence that requires internalizing patterns in dynamic environments and reasoning about consequences in the noisy real world, and we are witnessing a growing research efforts on advancing and benchmarking forecasting capabilities of AI systems.

Motivated by its deep roots and emerging paradigms, we envision forecasting as an exciting research program that requires lens from foundation models, agentic design, benchmarking, probabilistic reasoning, information retrieval, regret minimization, world modeling, etc. As the AI community seeks the next frontier in AI capabilities, this workshop aims to bring together researchers across machine learning, statistics, economics, finance and others to explore forecasting both as a foundational technical challenge and as a core capability of general-purpose AI systems.

Topics of Interest

The main topics of our workshop include, but are not limited to, the following aspects:

  • Architectures: agentic systems, LLM-as-a-Prophet, foundation models and world models.
  • Evaluation: automated event generation, metrics and benchmark design.
  • Reasoning: probabilistic reasoning, calibration, causal and temporal inference.
  • Retrieval: search architecture, credibility assessment and retrieval-augmented generation.
  • Foundations: scoring rules, online learning, and decision-theoretic frameworks.
  • Markets & Society: prediction markets, societal impacts of AI-driven forecasting.

Organizing Committee

Haifeng Xu

Haifeng Xu

Assistant Professor
University of Chicago

Jibang Wu

Jibang Wu

Assistant Professor
New York University, Shanghai

Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Professor
Carnegie Mellon University

Star Li

Star Li

PhD Student
University of Chicago

Ezra Karger

Ezra Karger

Director of Research
Forecasting Research Institute

Nicolai Ouporov

Nicolai Ouporov

Co-founder & CEO
Fleet AI

Simon Mahns

Simon Mahns

Researcher
Axiom Math

Anri Gu

Anri Gu

PhD Student
University of Chicago

Qingchuan Yang

Qingchuan Yang

PhD Student
University of Southern California

Sponsors

We gratefully acknowledge the support of our sponsors, whose generosity makes the workshop, the hackathon, and our paper awards possible.

Interested in sponsoring? Reach out via the Contact section below.

Contact

Email: forecastworkshop@gmail.com

Follow us: Updates and announcements will be posted on this website and through the organizers' channels.