ICML 2026 Workshop

Forecasting as a New Frontier
of Intelligence

July 2026 Seoul, Korea Location TBD

News

  • April 2, 2026 The OpenReview submission portal is now live! Abstract registration deadline is May 15, 2026 and the full submission deadline is May 20, 2026.
  • March 25, 2026 We are co-organizing the AI Forecasting Hackathon (May 2–3, 2026) — build AI agents that predict the future and compete on the Prophet Arena leaderboard. Top teams will be invited to present at our ICML workshop. Learn more & apply.
  • March 20, 2026 Our workshop Forecasting as a New Frontier of Intelligence has been accepted at ICML 2026 in Seoul, Korea!

About the Workshop

Forecasting has a rich tradition in ML, spanning key areas such as time-series analysis, online learning, data-driven decisions and quantitative finance. Recent advances in foundation models, however, raise a qualitatively new question: can general-purpose AI systems reliably anticipate future events across diverse real-world domains? Indeed, forecasting is often viewed as a hallmark of sophisticated intelligence that requires internalizing patterns in dynamic environments and reasoning about consequences in the noisy real world, and we are witnessing a growing research efforts on advancing and benchmarking forecasting capabilities of AI systems.

Motivated by its deep roots and emerging paradigms, we envision forecasting as an exciting research program that requires lens from foundation models, agentic design, benchmarking, probabilistic reasoning, information retrieval, regret minimization, world modeling, etc. As the AI community seeks the next frontier in AI capabilities, this workshop aims to bring together researchers across machine learning, statistics, economics, finance and others to explore forecasting both as a foundational technical challenge and as a core capability of general-purpose AI systems.

Invited Speakers

Distinguished researchers from academia and industry will share their perspectives on AI forecasting.

Philip Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock

UPenn / Good Judgement Project

Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a renowned expert on forecasting and decision-making, author of "Superforecasting" and co-principal investigator of the Good Judgment Project.

Rohan Alur

Rohan Alur

Bridgewater AIA

Rohan Alur is a PhD candidate in EECS at MIT and a Principal Research Scientist at Bridgewater Associates' AIA Labs. His research focuses on small-data prediction and LLM-based forecasting, notably leading the development of the AIA Forecaster, which achieves human superforecaster-level performance on ForecastBench.

Nicole Kagan

Nicole Kagan

Kalshi

Nicole Kagan leads Kalshi Research, focusing on prediction market design and data analysis. She holds degrees from Harvard and Oxford.

Toby Shevlane

Toby Shevlane

Mantic

Toby Shevlane is Co-founder and CEO of Mantic, an AI forecasting startup building systems that predict global events. Previously a Senior Research Scientist at Google DeepMind, he holds an MSc from Oxford, where his doctoral research examined AI governance; his work on model evaluations and extreme risks has been widely cited in the AI safety community.

* Additional speakers to be announced.

Call for Papers

We invite submissions on all aspects of AI forecasting, from methodological advances to benchmark design to applications in real-world domains. Papers should be submitted via OpenReview and will undergo peer review by our program committee.

Accepted papers will be presented as posters during the workshop, with selected papers invited for oral presentations. A best paper award will be given at the closing session.

Key Dates

Event Date
Submission Portal Opens May 1, 2026
Abstract Registration Deadline May 15, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC)
Submission Deadline May 20, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC)
Workshop Date July 2026

Topics of Interest

The main topics of our workshop include, but are not limited to, the following aspects:

  • Architectures: agentic systems, LLM-as-a-Prophet, foundation models and world models.
  • Evaluation: automated event generation, metrics and benchmark design.
  • Reasoning: probabilistic reasoning, calibration, causal and temporal inference.
  • Retrieval: search architecture, credibility assessment and retrieval-augmented generation.
  • Foundations: scoring rules, online learning, and decision-theoretic frameworks.
  • Markets & Society: prediction markets, societal impacts of AI-driven forecasting.

Submission Guidelines

Format: Submissions should be up to 4 pages (excluding references and appendix) using the ICML 2026 template.

Anonymity: All submissions should be anonymized for double-blind review.

Dual Submission: We welcome submissions of work that has been previously published or is under review elsewhere, with proper disclosure.

Platform: Submissions will be handled through OpenReview.

Submit via OpenReview

Forecasting Agent Hackathon

To encourage broad participation and interaction between workshop participants, we plan to host a hackathon before the workshop. Participants will build forecasting agents and compete on the Prophet Arena leaderboard.

More details on registration, logistics, and prizes will be announced soon.

Workshop Schedule (Tentative)

All times are in local Seoul time (KST).

Time Event
08:00 – 08:10 Opening Remarks
08:15 – 09:00 Invited Talk #1
09:00 – 09:45 Invited Talk #2
09:45 – 10:15 Oral Presentation #1
10:15 – 10:45 Break / Meet-and-Greet
10:45 – 11:30 Invited Talk #3
11:30 – 12:15 Invited Talk #4
12:15 – 13:30 Lunch / Poster Session / Spotlight Presentations
13:30 – 14:15 Invited Talk #5
14:15 – 14:45 Oral Presentation #2
14:45 – 15:30 Invited Talk #6
15:30 – 16:00 Break / Meet-and-Greet
16:00 – 16:50 Panel Discussion (All Invited Speakers)
16:50 – 17:00 Closing Remarks / Best Paper Award

Organizing Committee

Haifeng Xu

Assistant Professor
University of Chicago

Jibang Wu

Assistant Professor
New York University, Shanghai

Ruslan Salakhutdinov

Professor
Carnegie Mellon University

Star Li

PhD Student
University of Chicago

Ezra Karger

Director of Research
Forecasting Research Institute

Nicolai Ouporov

Co-founder & CEO
Fleet AI

Simon Mahns

Researcher
Axiom Math

Contact: For all communications regarding the workshop, please contact forecastworkshop@gmail.com.

Contact & Social Media

Email: forecastworkshop@gmail.com

Follow us: Updates and announcements will be posted on this website and through the organizers' channels.